After three consecutive strong harvests, Australian grain and oilseed production is set to return to more modest totals for the current season as drier growing conditions ‘hit home’, Rabobank says in its just-released 2023-24 Australian Winter Crop Forecast.
Hold tight - we’re checking permissions before loading more content
The bank says Australia is on track to harvest a total winter crop of 48.72 million tonnes for the current season. While down 24 per cent on last season’s record-breaking 63.85 million tonne national crop, this is still close to the five-year average and above totals recorded in 2018-19 and 2020-21.
And prices are expected to provide some silver lining to the lower production totals for Australian farmers, says report co-author and RaboResearch associate analyst Edward McGeoch, with dry conditions in Australia pushing local prices above those globally, to a ‘positive basis’ for wheat and also barley. While global export demand should also be supportive of canola prices.
Mr McGeoch said drier weather conditions that had spread across many cropping regions in the country and the prevailing El Niño climate outlook are playing a significant role in the tighter supply outlook for Australian grain and oilseeds.
“Production expectations are varied across regions with some farmers expecting to see elevated production due to positive growing conditions they have experienced while others will be facing tough decisions as to whether it will be worth harvesting their crop,” he said.
Rabobank has released its 2023-24 Australian Winter Crop Forecast.
Photo by
Erik van Veen
The bank says all cereal and coarse grain production — including wheat, barley and oats — is expected to decrease this season, with wheat declining the furthest, down to 26.9 million tonnes.
Winter crop production is expected to decline across all states, except Victoria, where the bank sees it rising by eight per cent from last year.
However, Mr McGeoch says, this is primarily due to the losses incurred during last year’s harvest, with a significant proportion of crops in the northern parts of the state unable to be harvested because of flood damage.
“Parts of Victoria have seen further strong rainfall across cropping regions in early October which will play a significant role in determining if these targets will be achieved or exceeded,” he said.
While Australia’s wheat production is forecast to come in at 26.9 million tonnes (down 26 per cent on last season), barley and canola will suffer less decline, Rabobank says.
“Barley is expected to see the slightest decline in all grains and oilseeds this year (down 18 per cent on last year to 11.91 million tonnes),” Mr McGeoch said.
“However, this is primarily due to an increased planted area for barley this season compared with 2022-23, while the remainder of the winter crop varieties saw reductions in planted area.”
Canola production is forecast to fall 24 per cent on last year to 5.77 million tonnes.
This total, however, remains 20 per cent higher than the five-year average, Mr McGeoch said, while pulse production — though forecast to be down this season — also remains slightly higher than the five-year average, at 3.08 million tonnes.
The biggest declines in total grain and oilseed production are expected in Queensland and Western Australia, at 36 per cent and 35 per cent respectively on last season.
