Lovitt Technologies, a defence manufacturer based in Greensborough, northeast of Melbourne, was targeted shortly before 4am on July 5, 2025.
An unnamed extremist group has claimed responsibility for the attack, which saw multiple vehicles set alight and the business vandalised, in an online video, the Victorian Joint Counter Terrorism Team alleges.
The unit, which includes Victoria Police, Australian Federal Police and ASIO, is investigating whether the attack was an act of terrorism potentially orchestrated by "far-left extremists" motivated by anarchist and revolutionary ideologies.
Investigators have not released the video, but images appear to depict a masked individual setting something alight while standing at a podium.
The offenders appear to be standing before a Palestinian flag and are alleged to have outlined a number of grievances in support of the Middle Eastern country.
Police said they could be motivated by the belief the business was part of the Australian Defence Force's supply chain.
They allegedly gave advice on how to create incendiary devices similar to one suspected of creating the fire that damaged vehicles at the manufacturing business.
If caught and convicted, the perpetrators of the attack could face life in prison for federal criminal offences related to the commissioning and preparation of a terrorist act.
A high threshold for terrorism charges means it will be difficult to prosecute those responsible on terror charges, extremist expert Mario Peucker told AAP.
There was no criminal offence for extremism, meaning the range of applicable offences for the attack were slim, Associate Professor Peucker said.
"They would have to go the highest possible (charge), or just have it as standard property damage," he said.
"It would then leave them no other option than going for terrorism, which is a very high bar."
A terrorist act is defined by Australia's criminal code as an act or threat of an act that intends to advance a political, religious or ideological cause.
The act or threatened act must intend to intimidate the public, or coerce, or influence by intimidation, any government.
In order to be deemed terrorism, the offence must also result in at least one of a series of outcomes including serious property damage or endangerment of life.
The threat of far-left extremism was recently outlined by Australia's spy chief Mike Burgess.
"This gets surprisingly little media coverage, but Australian companies with perceived links to Israel are being subjected to repeated acts of vandalism and arson by far-left activists," Mr Burgess noted in his 2026 Annual Threat Assessment.
But Prof Peucker said far-left extremism had not been a major focus of authorities.
"In that context, it is surprising that this is now considered terrorism," he said.
"It would be probably the first (terror attack) on the far left that we have seen in many, many years."
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