Hot March breaks Victorian records

By Djembe Archibald

Apr 25, 2025

Autumn has been hot with April starting off drier than usual, but will winter have the same fate? Photo by Megan Fisher

Victoria has seen a hotter than average autumn, and the Bureau of Meteorology says winter won’t be much different.

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Shepparton sweltered through March with an average daytime temperature of 30.9°C — the historical average is 27.7°C, a 3.2°C difference.

Mean maximum temperatures in March were above to very much above average for the state, as Victoria had its highest average daytime and night-time temperature for March since 2017.

Average night-time temperatures in March were above to very much above average, reaching up to the highest on record for the north-east of the state.

Shepparton, Tatura, Kyabram, Strathbogie and Yarrawonga all had their highest March daytime and night-time averages on record.

March was also significantly wetter than the average month for Shepparton, with 2025 seeing 58.4mm of rain, 24.5mm more than the historical average of 33.9mm.

Across the state, rainfall totals in March were below average for large parts of the far west and south, and above average for large parts of the east, with scattered areas in the north and central regions.

Weather events were at a minimum for March, with BOM listing low-intensity heatwave conditions impacting Victoria for several days as one of two events.

Cold fronts that passed through Victoria in mid-March — and brought heavy rainfall, strong winds and fluctuating temperatures — was the other event.

The first three weeks of April have been slightly warmer and significantly dry, with a total of 0.8mm of rainfall from April 1 to April 21 in Shepparton.

BOM has released its late autumn/early winter forecast, showing a warmer than average three months ahead.

The long-range forecast for May to July expects warmer than average days are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures.

Don’t pull out the winter duvets too early, as warmer than average nights are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures nationwide.

Below-average rainfall is likely almost nationwide during May and, as a total across the next three months, rainfall is likely (60 to 80 per cent chance) to be below average across parts of Victoria.

There is an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures across Australia, excluding parts of the north. Chances exceed 70 per cent across southern NSW and Victoria.

There is an increased chance of unusually high night-time temperatures across most of Australia. Chances exceed 70 per cent for Victoria and parts of the eastern coastline.