Mark Bailey said the spill risks were reducing but remained above the threshold needed for a declaration in each system.
“Releases to manage levels at Lake Eildon have occurred since the last risk of spill update,” Dr Bailey said on Friday, November 10.
“Releases to manage Lake Hume also occurred briefly in early October.
“The volumes to be deducted from spillable water accounts in the Goulburn and Murray systems due to these releases will be confirmed in the November 15 seasonal determination announcement.
“Releases to meet downstream demands have lowered water levels in Lake Hume and Lake Eppalock, reducing the spill risks.
“The risk of spill and potential for further deductions from spillable water accounts in the Murray system is slightly above 50 per cent and about 20 per cent in the Campaspe system.”
Dr Bailey said the risk of spill from Lake Eildon remained close to 100 per cent.
He said the risk of spill assessment referred to water accounting only and did not describe the chances of flooding this season.
Allocation trade from NSW to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 Gl or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent.
As the risk of spill in the Murray system remains above 50 per cent, trade from NSW to Victoria is not possible. The volume available for trade is updated with each risk of spill announcement.
The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2023-24 will be updated on Monday, December 11.
For more information, visit the Water Register website. Visit the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website for Victorian shares of Murray storages.
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