BHP will hold its annual general meeting at Sydney Showgrounds on Thursday morning, the first time under chief executive Brandon Craig, who took on the role in July.
The mining giant, known colloquially as the Big Australian, disclosed on Tuesday it produced 400,000 tonnes of copper in the September quarter, down 19 per cent from the June quarter and well below analyst expectations.
There had been issues at BHP's massive Escondida copper mine in Chile's Atacama Desert, including severe weather in July and August and a fatality on September 23, BHP said.
The company left its production guidance unchanged, predicting it would mine 1.65 to 1.8 million tonnes of copper in 2026/27, but it has little margin for error to meet that forecast.
Copper drove more than half of BHP's earnings, so the fall in production would be front of mind for shareholders, Sharesies Australia head of capital markets Jacki Neumann said.
"Investors will want confidence that BHP can manage the headwinds and that its copper pipeline can translate into reliable returns," Ms Neumann said.
The other big question for BHP was capital allocation, she said.
It is investing across copper, potash and iron ore and needs to do that without squeezing shareholder returns.
"The group enters the meeting with a strong financial base and its highest full-year dividend in four years, but the market is unlikely to reward broad commodity optimism alone," Ms Neumann said.
Investors would want to see cost control, projects delivered as promised and capital continuing to earn a solid return, Ms Neumann said.
As in past years, environmental activists are set to protest outside the meeting.
The Pacific Climate Warriors will gather in nearby Cathy Freeman Park to demand an end to coal expansion projects they say threaten their lands, oceans and futures.
"For Pacific peoples, the climate crisis is not a distant threat. It is our lived reality," the group said in a social media post.
BHP sold off most of its thermal coal mine in 2022 but retains the Mt Arthur mine in NSW, as well as five coking coal mines in Queensland's Bowen Basin as part of a joint venture with Mitsubishi.
BHP shares were changing hands on Wednesday afternoon at $58.52, up 27.9 per cent since the start of the year.
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