Pears pay price for predictions

He believes retailers can use the season predictions to lower prices.

“The biggest challenge within reason is that we have tried to be a bit closed shop,” Mr McNab said.

“In the past we have gone and collected these data and then indirectly handed it over to the retailers for them to then go and make some decisions on their buying patterns.

“While we are making this dataset for us to understand, all of a sudden someone gives the same information to the retailer, so if we have got, say, an eight to 10 per cent increase in produce this year to sell, then they will say ‘well, we’re gonna try take off an eight per cent margin’.

“We need data for us as an industry, but at the same time we are (cautious) as to who this is distributed to.”

Mr McNab said the forecasts were determined from modelling historical data and surveying the number of young fruit on trees and said the integrity of the data was important.

“When not everyone is telling the truth of how much they grow and what pack-outs they get and what buy-ins they’ve got, to make a decision off that is not the greatest decision to make.”

Mr McNab also said forecast models did not consider weather events.

“If something is then out of our control, such as a hailstorm or the wind knocks some of it down, then it makes it really difficult to say one thing and then go and say something else,” he said.

“But it is essentially an average, which is why we prefer to do these things post-harvest, then we can make some genuine market decisions on how to sell it.”

Mr McNab said this year’s yield had not met modelled predictions.

“I think everyone’s harvest is down a little bit on their forecasts,” he said.

“It’s pulled back a bit to be a little lighter on yields but typically the quality goes up with a lower yield.”

With most pear harvests now ending, other growers have reflected on this year’s season.

The first-picked William Bartlett pears are currently on store shelves with the popular Packham variety having just completed its harvest and due to be in retailers’ hands from May.

Fruit Growers Victoria grower services manager Michael Crisera said the quality and yield of the William Bartletts had improved.

“The Williams’ quality is a lot better than last year,” Mr Crisera said.

“The yields have been very similar to last year too but the pack-out probably larger.

“Last year there was a lot of pest and disease pressure, which we didn’t contend with this season.”

Mr Crisera said the Packham pears were expected to be down on yield but larger in size.

He also said there had been a recent increase in exports of William Bartlett pears to Canada.

“Canada has traditionally been a market for Williams but from this week we have seen a bit of an increase, and we hope that will follow through to Packhams being exported.”

Although 500 hectares of orchard had been impacted by hail, Mr Crisera said the damage was not as severe as the previous season.

“But some people were hit by hail twice as well, so hopefully this will be the beginning of some improvement all round after three tough years.”

Mr Crisera said he was looking forward to the Goulburn Valley having a successful apple harvest in the next couple of months, with the first picks showing some promise.

“The Gala apples have been excellent out of Shepparton,” he said.

“There are some good quality and large amounts of fruit.”